SMRC: Elektabilitas PDIP 21,7%, Gerindra 9,3%, dan Golkar 9%

SMRC Elektabilitas PDIP 21,7%, Gerindra 9,3%, dan Golkar 9%

SMRC: Elektabilitas PDIP 21,7%, Gerindra 9,3%, dan Golkar 9%

POLITIKBERSUARA.TK – Partai Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan (PDIP) diprediksi memenangi Pemilu 2019 dengan elektabilitas 21,7 persen. Gerindra menempati urutan kedua dengan 9,3 persen lalu disusul oleh Golkar 9 persen.

Begitulah hasil survei Lembaga Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) tentang pemilihan partai politik jika dilakukan secara top of mind. Peneliti senior SMRC Djayadi Hanan mengatakan duduknya PDIP di peringkat teratas menunjukkan pilkada DKI 2017 lalu tidak berpengaruh terhadap perpolitikan nasional.


Dari hasil survei SMRC terlihat elektabilitas Jokowi tetap stabil dan Gerindra mulai meningkat. “Kalau Pilkada DKI berpengaruh, seharusnya PDIP turun, Gerindra naik. Tapi ini sama-sama naik. Dengan kata lain, Pilkada DKI tidak mengubah dukungan terhadap partai. PDIP bisa saja, kalau tidak ada perubahan yang signifikan, peta dukungan terhadap PDIP stabil, kecuali Gerindra,” kata Djayadi saat memaparkan hasil survei SMRC di Jalan Cisadane Nomor 8, Cikini, Jakarta Pusat, Kamis (8/6/2017).

Menurut dia, dukungan pada PDIP stabil karena faktor figur Jokowi. Masyarakat yang memilih PDIP umumnya sudah lekat dengan figur Jokowi, sehingga berdampak pada elektabilitas PDIP.

Hal itu sama dengan yang terjadi pada 2009 saat Partai Demokrat memenangi pemilu karena faktor nama Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. “Hal yang sama terjadi seperti Demokrat. Saat itu SBY jadi, itu kemungkinan besar menjelaskan karena partai-partai itu memiliki tokoh, mengapa penilaian terhadap Jokowi stabil. Maka wajar tingkat kepuasan masyarakat kepada Jokowi menjadi positif pada akhirnya berpengaruh pada partai PDIP, termasuk dukungan Prabowo pada Gerindra,” jelas Djayadi.

“Yang potensial bisa mendekati posisi PDIP adalah Gerindra karena dia punya tokoh, tapi tantangannya tingkat elektabilitas Pak Prabowo jauh di bawah Jokowi,” sambungnya.

Survei ini dapat menjawab berubah atau tidaknya dukungan masyarakat ketika Pilkada DKI maupun sesudah pilkada dilakukan. Menurut Djayadi, Pilkada DKI tidak mengubah peta dukungan massa dalam hal politik nasional menjelang pemilu dan pilpres 2018 dan 2019.

“Survei nasional sebelum dan sesudah Pilkada DKI dapat menjawab pertanyaan banyak pihak, apakah hasil Pilkada DKI mengubah peta dukungan massa dalam politik nasional menjelang pemilu dan pilpres, jawabannya tidak,” tutupnya.

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